Between 2023 and 2028, Nigeria's federal government, headed by President Bola Tinubu, is expected to spend more than ₦91 trillion on debt payments.

In the face of persistently poor revenue performance, the figure highlights the growing burden of public borrowing.

According to Nairameteics, the estimate is based on future estimates in the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework for 2026–2028, the 2025 Appropriation Act, and debt service allocations in the 2023 and 2024 budgets.

Rising fiscal deficits, a rapidly expanding debt stock, and high interest rates—factors that have gotten worse since 2023—are reflected in the predicted amount of debt service.

Nigeria's federal debt commitments have increased, both in terms of actual spending and budgeted allocations.

The administration overspent the budget by around ₦2 trillion in 2023, spending ₦8.56 trillion instead of the ₦6.56 trillion it had anticipated.

The difference grew even more in 2024, when the real expenditure skyrocketed from ₦8.27 trillion to ₦12.63 trillion.

The debt service amount for 2025 is ₦14.32 trillion.

Actual debt service exceeded the pro-rated target of ₦8.35 trillion by the end of the first seven months of 2025, reaching ₦9.8 trillion.

The MTEF estimates that debt service will be ₦15.9 trillion in 2026 and ₦19.8 trillion in 2027 and 2028.

Although historical trends suggest that real outlays could exceed ₦91 trillion, the entire budgeted debt service for the six-year period is ₦84.6 trillion.

Even though the government intends to spend ₦114.8 trillion on capital projects over that time, actual releases have continuously fallen short of debt servicing commitments.

Compared to the ₦8.56 trillion spent on debt payment in 2023, capital expenditures came in at ₦6.3 trillion.

As interest and principal repayments took up an increasing portion of resources, the gap grew in 2024, with capital spending falling short of debt service by ₦11.5 trillion.

With pro-rated capital spending for the first seven months of 2025 at barely ₦3.59 trillion—much less than the ₦13.6 trillion anticipated under the budget—the situation has gotten worse.

This suggests that debt obligations are consuming the majority of government resources, and capital projects are once again being neglected.

Nigeria is getting caught in a fiscal cycle where debt servicing increases more quickly than revenue, which limits the government's ability to invest in infrastructure, healthcare, education, and other areas that boost productivity.