Nigeria has seen a dramatic increase in crude oil imports from the United States during the first eight months of 2025, with a rise of 101 percent, as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The nation imported 31.69 million barrels from February to August 2025, an increase from 15.79 million barrels during the same timeframe in 2024 — representing an uplift of 15.9 million barrels. This notable rise reflects changing sourcing trends due to supply challenges and initiatives aimed at stabilizing local fuel production.

According to EIA statistics, no imports were documented in January for either year. Monthly figures reveal significant increases throughout most of the period analyzed.

In February, imports decreased to 3.11 million barrels, falling short of the 3.61 million barrels recorded in 2024 — a decrease of 13.8 percent, or approximately 500,000 barrels. However, the volumes surged in March, reaching 5.25 million barrels compared to 3.42 million barrels in the same month the previous year.

In July, imports slightly rose to 4.17 million barrels from 4.10 million barrels a year prior — an increase of 73,000 barrels, or 1.8 percent. The figure for August 2025 also stood at 4.17 million barrels, with no year-ago comparison available because the EIA did not publish data for August 2024.

The increasing influx of U.S. crude oil emphasizes Nigeria’s persistent reliance on foreign supply amid unstable domestic production and a progressive transition in local refining operations. With national production still lagging behind targets and refinery activities gradually increasing, U.S. light sweet grades remain a crucial option for fulfilling immediate feedstock requirements.

The fluctuations in earlier months, followed by a notable spike, imply that the Dangote Refinery’s crude intake is moving into a consistent ramp-up stage, favoring U.S. light sweet crude for its suitability with complex refining methods. Nevertheless, the growing dependence on imported barrels underscores Nigeria’s enduring dilemma: as Africa’s largest oil producer and an OPEC member, it continues to export crude while relying on imports for refined products due to the decay of state-owned refineries.

While the Dangote Refinery was anticipated to change this circumstance by focusing on domestic crude, the latest statistics illustrate that it still depends on foreign supply for operational optimization.

The over 100 percent year-on-year rise, along with the swift month-on-month growth in 2025, indicates a fundamental transformation in Nigeria’s crude import behavior. The Federal Government reported that between January and August 2025, local refiners were supplied with 67.66 million barrels of crude for processing.

This number, confirmed by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, underscores the ongoing difficulties in closing the crude allocation gap facing indigenous refineries, despite Nigeria’s increasing production levels.

The commission clarified that crude allocations were made following the Petroleum Industry Act 2021 and the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation framework.

Eniola Akinkuotu, the Head of Media and Strategic Communications, mentioned that "a total of 67,657,559 barrels were delivered to local refiners between January and August this year. All refiners received that total during the eight-month period," in a statement.

However, the volume supplied was significantly less than what refiners had requested. Local processors demanded 123,480,500 barrels for the first half of 2025 but received only 67,657,559 barrels — a shortfall of 55,822,941 barrels, or roughly 45 percent less than necessary to achieve their refining goals.

Earlier in the year, the NUPRC estimated that refineries including Port Harcourt, Warri, Dangote, and others would need around 770,500 barrels per day. This equates to 23.8 million barrels per month, or about 123.4 million barrels for the first six months of 2025.

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise has called on the Federal Government to promptly reinstate the previously suspended 15 percent fuel import duty, warning that its removal poses significant risks to Nigeria’s refining sector and long-term energy security.