The Nigerian Economic Summit Group has cautioned that policy reversals and reform weariness frequently occur as political cycles approach, and that the 2027 general elections may represent the biggest threat to Nigeria's ongoing economic changes to date.

During the NESG 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook presentation, the committee issued the warning and emphasised the risks that reforms usually confront during election seasons.

Speaking at the occasion, NESG Chief Economist Dr. Omishakin stated that insufficient consolidation, particularly during election cycles, caused some nations that had initially benefited from economic stabilisation to lose those benefits.

“Election cycles are usually the most difficult moments for reforms,” Omishakin said.

We have observed in a number of nations that governments tend to calm down when the acute crisis has passed.

The benefits start to reverse as elections get near, discipline deteriorates, and policies become inconsistent.

He claims that after stabilising changes were put into place between 2023 and 2025, Nigeria is currently in a crucial consolidation period, making 2026 a pivotal year for securing progress before the 2027 elections.

He stated that Nigeria is no longer experiencing a severe crisis, but he cautioned that if changes are not solidified, there are serious risks associated with this shift.

"This is a dangerous time because we are no longer in a crisis.

After stabilisation, nations frequently relapse because they fail to recognise the significance of consolidation. We might not be able to maintain what we have accomplished in 2027 if we become sidetracked by transient political concerns.

Nigeria's current real GDP growth rate of roughly 3.8% is still below the 5.5–6% needed to accomplish significant economic reform, according to Omishakin.

He cautioned that if reforms are not strengthened, growth may return to the 2–3% range seen in prior years.

He stated, "Our projection for 2026 is about 5.5% growth, but this is conditional."

“It depends entirely on whether reforms are sustained through the political cycle. Without discipline, the economy could easily slide back.”

He stressed that anchoring reforms ahead of the elections would require a strong commitment to macroeconomic discipline, including a clear path towards single-digit inflation, sustained exchange rate stability and foreign reserves of about 50 billion dollars.

“Single-digit inflation is not just a number. It is a signal that consolidation is real and durable. It shows that the economy has moved beyond crisis management to long-term stability,” he stated.

On sectoral performance, Omishakin warned that weak growth in agriculture and manufacturing could undermine reform outcomes if urgent action is not taken.

Agriculture is currently rising at a rate of approximately 2%, whereas manufacturing is growing at a rate of about 1.5%. Consolidation is not supported by these figures. Without jobs, productivity, and inclusivity, reforms cannot be sustained. This is made much more difficult by election demands," he continued.

Earlier, as political activity heats up ahead of the 2027 elections, NESG Chairman Mr. Niyi Yusuf warned policymakers not to give in to temporary populist tactics.

Yusuf stated, "Stabilisation is only the first step."

"Consolidation is the real work, and even as the 2027 elections draw near, that work must continue."