The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has escalated its economic sanctions against the Niger junta and those aiding them, including the governments of Mali and Burkina Faso.

This development follows the failure of a diplomatic mission involving the African Union, ECOWAS, United Nations, and the United States to resolve the political deadlock in Niger. The military junta declined to meet with the delegations during the mission.

The Acting US Deputy Secretary of State, Victoria Nuland, was also snubbed by the military leaders. They denied her access to Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, the coup leader, and ousted President Muhammed Bazoum, who was being held in the presidential palace.

Gen. Tchiani and his fellow military officers overthrew President Bazoum on July 26, prompting ECOWAS to impose a series of sanctions to pressure them into restoring the deposed president to power.

Speaking from Abuja, presidential spokesman Ajuri Ngelale announced the latest round of sanctions, targeting individuals and entities linked to the Niger junta. While he did not provide intricate details, he indicated that these restrictions were executed through the Central Bank of Nigeria.

Ngelale also clarified that the fresh sanctions extended to Mali and Burkina Faso, according to a source from the presidency. The sanctions encompass any entity conducting business with the Niger Republic.

Ngelale added that President Bola Tinubu had engaged in extensive consultations following the conclusion of ECOWAS's one-week ultimatum for the junta to return power to the deposed president. He stressed that ECOWAS's response to the coup was impartial, embracing the diverse ethnic and religious groups within the regional bloc.

President Tinubu emphasized that the ECOWAS mandate and ultimatum were not solely those of Nigeria but represented the consensus position of all member Heads of State.

Intervention snubbed

According to a report by Reuters, the letter conveyed that the imposition of ECOWAS sanctions in response to the coup had stirred widespread anger among Niger's citizens. This anger had rendered it unsafe to host the envoys and led to denouncements of a "climate of threatened aggression against Niger."

An African Union (AU) spokesperson verified that the diplomatic mission's access had indeed been denied, while ECOWAS refrained from making any statements.

The junta had previously declined meetings with a high-ranking US envoy and another ECOWAS delegation.

Niger holds the position of the world's seventh-largest uranium producer, a crucial fuel for nuclear energy, which adds to its strategic significance.

The United Nations expressed that Secretary-General Antonio Guterres fully endorsed ECOWAS's mediation efforts. Additionally, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken conveyed on French radio station RFI that diplomatic avenues remained the most effective means of resolving the situation. Blinken chose not to comment on the future status of approximately 1,100 US troops stationed in Niger. The region also hosts troops from France, Germany, and Italy.

Blinken later voiced concerns on the BBC about Russia's Wagner mercenaries capitalizing on the instability in Niger to bolster their presence in the Sahel. He stated, "I think what happened and what continues to happen in Niger was not instigated by Russia or by Wagner, but they tried to take advantage of it."

There are worries among Western allies that Niger might follow in the footsteps of Mali, which expelled French troops and UN peacekeepers and embraced mercenaries from the Wagner group after a 2021 coup.

Nuland, who was denied meetings with both Tchiani and Bazoum in Niamey, stated that her discussions with lower-ranking officers were candid but challenging. These officers exhibited minimal interest in exploring avenues to restore democratic order.

In contrast, on Monday, Tchiani met with a joint delegation from neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso, both countries where the military had toppled civilian governments. The juntas in these countries expressed support for the coup in Niger.

Alongside the Malian military, individuals presumed to be from the Wagner group reportedly carried out a brutal military campaign, resulting in the execution of hundreds of civilians last year, as reported by witnesses and human rights organizations. The army and Wagner denied these allegations.

In a newly released report seen by Reuters, UN sanctions monitors disclosed the use of sexual violence and grave human rights violations as part of a campaign to terrorize the population.

Further affirming its resolution, ECOWAS, led by President Bola Tinubu, has imposed fresh sanctions on the Niger junta. The regional bloc had initially granted the coup leaders a seven-day window to reinstate President Bazoum or face sanctions, including the potential for military action. The junta defied ECOWAS's ultimatum and pledged to resist any foreign intervention on their soil. They also cut ties with Nigeria, Togo, France, and the US, in addition to closing Nigerien airspace indefinitely.

Upon the ultimatum's expiry, the bloc scheduled a meeting for Thursday to review the situation in the West African nation.

IDPs stranded

In the midst of these events, the political turmoil in Niger has plunged Nigerian refugees residing in the country into distress and confusion. Alleged hostilities from their hosts and the repercussions of the coup have contributed to their plight.

Many of these refugees had been compelled to relocate to Niger from the northernmost local government areas of Borno State due to security concerns in their own communities.

Despite the repatriation of numerous refugees ahead of the 2023 elections and the postponed census, a significant number of displaced Nigerians still remain in Diffa and Bosso communities of the Niger Republic, as confirmed by officials from the Borno State Emergency Management Agency.

Prior to the recent coup in Niger, the refugees had been benefiting from the hospitality of their hosts, who had reportedly leased out farmland to them for cultivation purposes. Borno State Governor Babagana Zulum had even provided essential supplies to refugees in Diffa on a prior occasion.

However, the sentiment among some hosts, particularly those sympathetic to the coupists, has now turned hostile. These hosts hold Nigerians responsible for their nation's perceived stance on the potential conflict between the two countries. With the borders closed and insurgency still prevalent in their ancestral communities, many refugees are apprehensive about returning home.

Hassan Maina, an inhabitant of the Internally Displaced Persons camp in Damask, highlighted the concerns of his relatives residing in Bosso, Niger. They conveyed their struggle with the escalating cost of essential goods due to border closures, affecting their livelihoods since a significant portion of goods in Niger's border communities originate from Nigeria.

As ECOWAS convenes to deliberate on the possibility of military intervention in Niger and other potential strategies, the residents of Illela community in Sokoto State have clarified that the deployment of troops in the area is intended to counter banditry and terrorism.

Nuhu Ibrahim, a resident, affirmed that the increased security presence in the town is in response to ongoing security challenges, emphasizing that it's not meant for other purposes. He clarified that security personnel haven't been moved to the border region.

Furthermore, a commercial motorcyclist named Haruna Yakubu shared that the atmosphere in Illela remains peaceful and that the relationship between the community and their neighbors in Kwani, Niger Republic, is harmonious.

Meanwhile, the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) has urged President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to lift the sanctions and restrictions imposed on the Niger Republic following the military junta's overthrow of the civilian government there. The ACF also called for increased dialogue with the junta to prevent further tensions following the expiration of ECOWAS's one-week ultimatum.

The ACF emphasized that any attempt at military intervention could face strong resistance from neighboring countries under military rule. The organization urged President Tinubu and ECOWAS to reconsider their approach, recognizing the complexities surrounding the situation.

As discussions on potential military intervention continue, Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, estimated that such an operation could cost around $2 billion annually. He emphasized the need for careful consideration of the broad economic, security, and geopolitical implications, and cautioned against high collateral damage.

Yusuf also noted that military intervention would impact regional trade and security, and highlighted the significant financial commitment it would entail.

An ECOWAS statement clarified that the planned tripartite mission to Niger did not take place as initially reported due to the unavailability of the military authorities to receive the delegation. ECOWAS reiterated its commitment to restoring constitutional order in Niger through all appropriate measures.